News: March 2001

I've been plowing through Ken Burns' Baseball series, a lengthy retrospective on the game he did for PBS back in 1994. I don't find the sport nearly as interesting as Burns' or his various commentators obviously do, but there's lots of good history here. The first video, covering 1850-1900, is relatively boring, but videos 2, 3, 4 respectively covering 1900-1910, 1910-1920, and 1920-1930 are great. I'd call them "must" viewing for fans of the game (which I am not particularly) and decent history for the rest of us. Like many PBS series, these are probably available for checkout at your local library

March 25, 2001
Another lame day with the sore throat, congestion, etc. Visited Urgent Care and had a culture taken just to make sure it's not strep (it's not). Still don't feel any better though. I'm popping Advil 4x a day just to keep the pain level of my throat tolerable.

Watched the Oscars with Erin. We liked Steve Martin as host (though we also like him in general too). Of the films in contention for various awards, we had seen two: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Erin Brockovich. I was happy that Crouching Tiger won best foreign film, though I continue to think it's overrated on the whole. I was also pleased with Julia Roberts' award for Best Actress for Erin Brockovich. It was an excellent film, and she was a excellent in it.

As far as best dressed awards go, I thought Julia Roberts and Catherine Zeta-Jones both looked elegant, but Jennifer Lopez' see-through top was the most drool-worthy outfit of the night. She looked fine.

March 24, 2001
Another sick day. I won't go into details, since I'm tired of whining.

Erin and I watched Life is Beautiful, an Italian film from last year (also Oscar winner for best foreign film). Mixing comedy with the Holocaust is dangerous ground upon which to tread, but I think this movie does it successfully. It's a wonderful story, full of magic moments, and very embracing of humanity. We watched it in Italian with English subtitles. I'm going to watch it again with the English dubbed to see if I can catch more of the film's visuals. Either way, this is a great picture. Highly recommended.

March 22, 2001
Dave swung by for 15 minutes or so, and that was a nice bright spot in an otherwise pretty lame day. I'm still suffering from the misery of the flu, and the only plus I can come up with here is that it's not a stomach flu. All symptoms are still, as far as I can tell, in the "getting worse" stage, though. At least Nyquil is enabling me to sleep through the night.

March 20, 2001
Looks like I spoke to soon. I got hit by the flu-like symptoms today. Fever? Check. All-over achy feeling? Check. Sore throat? Check. Nasal congestion? Check. Given that Erin's still fighting a cough and her superior immune system took a week to battle this thing, I'm thinking I'll be well sometime in 2002.

The good news, to the extent there is any, is that the symptoms didn't fully manifest themselves until late afternoon, so I had time to be my regular charming self when the assessor visited this morning.

And news from the assessor was good: Salem housing prices have been creeping up over the course of the last few years, and the comparables (in size and location) he'd selected for this house ranged in price from $144,000 to $153,000. While I don't think we'll see those kinds of numbers, I do think that mid-$130k is likely. That's not California-style appreciation, but we'll take it—especially since it moves us that much closer to the magic "no more PMI" level of 80% debt to equity.

Given the size of the house (about 2500 square feet), the stellar location, and the instant park access, I still find it incredible that we got the deal we did on it. I may have mentioned this before, but I would've paid another $10k for this place, easy.

Today's half point interest rate cut by the Fed may have sent the stock markets into a tailspin, but it works just fine for me. Many if not most stocks remain overvalued, and it's hardly the responsibility of the Fed to insure that market speculators can make money.

Of course a larger rate cut might have proved more helpful to us on the house refinance, but I can live with it. Our deal is 6.25% with 1.875 points. Trick now becomes trying to figure out when to "lock in" a lower rate. I'm allowed to do this once and that's it. I can do it any time before we close on April 6.

If I don't lock in a new rate, there will be an automatic comparison made between our current deal and the rates on April 1 with us getting the better of the two. Today's rates were 6.25% with 1.125 points. That'd save us money upfront, but I'd actually prefer a lower interest rate with higher points. (A savings .25% equals about $3300 in interest over the life of our loan. One point is a little over $1,000.)

Regardless of where rates might headed in the next two weeks, if I can lock in a loan at 6% or less, I'll probably do it. Mortgage rates fluctuate, and while I want to save as much as possible (obviously) I don't want to miss the great deal because I'm being greedy about it.

One final note: I love fiddling with numbers like this. (I probably should've been an accountant, though I suppose I was a finance manager for a few years.) That said, this whole process would be more fun if I felt better.

March 19, 2001
It's my turn to be afflicted health-wise, but it's not what you might expect. Instead of flu-like symptoms, I'm dealing with a stupid calf muscle strain (or something) that refuses to let me run. This is highly annoying, as I'm falling even further behind on my running schedule. I swear I'll be doing daily doubles in December for sure.

Erin had a terrible night's sleep last night. Repeatedly woke up coughing. Despite this she returned to school today, and I think it buoyed her spirits if nothing else. Slowly but surely she is feeling better, and what else can you say? She really loves teaching.

(We've got her some Nyquil for tonight. Here's hoping.)

I laid the smack down on the carpenter ants' place of habitat yesterday, raining my special sauce version of love dust down on their squishy little heads. The stump of the tree I felled last year was the first boarding house I attacked, and the little buggers there I'm sure had no idea that Ant Armageddon was nigh.

I then turned my sights to the wooden backyard steps (not the ones by the side of the house) leading down toward the park. I flipped over the bottom step with a shovel only to have it crumble. Guess who I found inside? Well, I gave them a liberal sprinkling of powder, and boy, did they need it. These guys were HUGE.

So we'll be ditching the backyard steps completely over spring break. In fact, we're ultimately looking at pitching almost all the wood steps and retaining walls and rails on the grounds around the house. I'll be cutting out stumps and clearing out dead wood. In short, I'm kicking butt and taking names. We blasted the sugar ants out of existence (thank you Terro II!), and I assure you that the carpenter ants will follow.

March 18, 2001
Erin's still doing the flu thing. She missed three days of school last week, which is longer than she's ever been absent at one time for illness-related reasons. In fact, this is as sick as she been since I've known her.

The good news is that she's getting better. The fevers and chills and night sweats have disappeared and though she's still got a little nasal congestion, she's starting to bounce back. The flu has been a butt-kicker, though.

We've got an assessor coming out on Tuesday to give the house a once-over. Here's hoping that the in our year and half of living here we've not watched the value of our investment depreciate. I don't think we've taken care of the place that badly, though I concede we were unable to do the fix-it work we wanted to last summer because of the lengthy France trip.

This summer, however, we're jazzed about the possibilities. Most of it is painting or landscaping and well within our limited abilities. A few items, such as electrical panel upgrades and roof structural support, will require professionals, but no biggy. I've already got a call into an electrician, and I hope to have all the electrical fix-its and upgrades finished in the next couple of weeks.

The roof support (mainly of the front walkway) will probably also include the removal of that hideous green fiberglass. Never have liked the stuff, and we would've removed it already if it didn't prove to be a very effective weather break for the front porch. I'm hoping we can put in some kind of door—maybe lattice work or something, I don't know. The door would open down onto a pathway around the house to the south. I'd like to use bushes and plants to shroud the pathway from casual viewing, and I'll probably need to add in some kind of night time lighting. This all ties into my plan to re-do the tiers by the southwest retaining walls, one of my major chores for the summer.

I don't know if it's anything I did, but the carpenter ants have disappeared for the moment. Who knows if they'll return? I've patched some of the foundation cracks around the house—they're minor, but I needed to patch them anyway—which the ants may have been using to gain entry. And I sprinkled ant-killing powder wherever I thought appropriate. Haven't seen them for a few days now. Hope my optimism isn't premature.

In the midst of my ant battle, I also started digging out stumps from a couple of the dead trees on our property. (There's one other stump I need to take out.) Good Lord what a struggle. I swear these little tiny trees have massive roots, and it's going to take a substantial amount of digging to these things out. Good thing this is another one of those summer projects (I've started it early). I may not be done until the end of the summer anyway.

March 14, 2001
The flu hit Erin like a ton of bricks yesterday during 7th period. She was running a 101.6 degree temperature last night, but thanks to some sleep and a couple of Advil her fever had broken by morning. The achy feeling abated a bit as well, though she's still getting a bit of the hot-cold temperature thing. Lots of congestion, but that seemed better this morning too. Water, Advil, and sleep are the order of the day for her.

I was in Portland all day yesterday. I started at the American Red Cross with my first pheresis donation in about five years. I used to do this a lot before we moved to California, but I never got started with it down there. I've been looking forward to resuming since our return.

For those who don't know, the pheresis donation process works like this: They take your donated blood, spin it in a cyclotron to remove the platelets (which they keep), then stick the blood back in. The platelets are then used primarily by cancer and leukemia patients undergoing radiation or chemotherapy treatment.

Additionally—and this is something of personal significance—the platelets are crucial to liver transplant patients. According to one of the nurses I spoke with, when OHSU does a liver transplant it takes all the platelets that the Red Cross can come up with. "Wipes us out for a couple of days" was the way she put it.

Through whatever quirk of fate or nature, like is the case with whole blood donations my body is ideally suited for this sort of thing. I've got veins in both arms as big as highways, and though my O negative blood type doesn't win me the points it does with whole blood donation, my platelet count is huge. So much so in fact that I normally do two donations at one sitting. (Platelets are regenerated by the body within 24 to 48 hours.)

Because the pheresis donation process is lengthy—a couple of hours at least—donors are treated like royalty. Heated blankets, individual TV and movie, two attending RNs. It's a relatively luxurious experience, all things considered.

I don't know why people feel compelled to send these things, but please don't. I'm speaking of the email petitions that get circulated by well-meaning folks who have simply failed to grasp that email petitions are nine times out of 10 an utter waste of time.

Nobody of decision-making authority is going to pay attention to these things because they're far too easily forged. But usually that's not a problem since these things—like almost every virus warning I've ever received via email—are completely fake to begin with.

We received one yesterday protesting Taliban's "atrocities against women" in Afganistan. The email lists plenty of these—and there are many—and concludes with a statement about how "signing" this email petition (does typing your name constitute a legal signature? I didn't think so) you agree that the Taliban's treatment of women is completely unacceptable. (Well, duh. Is there anyone in Western Civilization who thinks otherwise?)

I'm not sure that the Taliban, who just finished destroying unique Buddhist artifacts from the 5th century despite world outrage and protestations, has Internet access. But more than that, does anybody think that an email petition from the United States will make any difference whatsoever?

If you want to have input on this issue, write your Congressperson, the President, or the United Nations. I don't think it will make any difference either, frankly, because I'm not sure that there's a whole lot they can do. But you'll have a better chance of accomplishing something positive than you will by spamming all your friends with a petition.

March 12, 2001
We bit the bullet and decided today to refinance our 30 year fixed 7.75 percent mortgage. Although it'll take us a few years to get ahead, ultimately this new 15 years fixed 6.25 percent loan will shave off over $15,000 in interest and about a year of payments. Closing costs will be steep, but if I've plotted things correctly we should be able to be finish up paying on the house in about 13 years.

We're rate protected at 6.25%, and after the paperwork gets moving there will be a 10-day window right before we close where we can lock in an even lower rate if it turns up. All of this will take place a week or two after the Federal Reserve Board meets on March 20, so it's not like we'll be missing out on the cut that's coming. One might be tempted to wait beyond that and it would not surprise me if rates moved further south over the course of the next few months. But it also wouldn't surprise me if they didn't, because most of the recent reports have this stock market meltdown being primarily a technology sector disaster and little else.

Truth is, nobody knows where interest rates are headed past March 20. And every month we wait is another month we pay at 7.75 percent. The 6.25 percent loan is something I can live with regardless of where rates go. And it moves us forward in our financial endeavors in relatively short order (since I always planned to refinance at some point).

Monthly payments could actually go down if we wanted to pay on a 15 year schedule, but I think we'll probably just prepay at the same level we've been doing. That'd have us finished by the time I'm 45, and just in time for me to launch my political career. (I'll be running for dog catcher. Hehe.) Actually, the more important bit is probably that we won't have any kids in college yet, because I'm not planning to do a ton of saving in that regard. (My understanding is that many times parents who save money just end up getting lower financial aid for their kids anyway.)

This is going to mean more short-term skimping and saving, but long-term I think we're headed in an even better direction.

On a related note, Erin and I have had a number of discussions lately about her working full-time or not. Her stress level is so much lower than it's ever been that despite the financial hardship it presents, we're considering it for next year (and the foreseeable future) as well.

We're not getting rich living life this way, but in the trade of time for money, I like to believe that we've always valued time more, and given the burdens that teachers bear, working 5 classes instead of 6 might be the best option. Nothing's decided at this point, but it's something we're pondering.

March 11, 2001
Helana and I went out to breakfast then met Erin for Mass at Queen of Peace. We followed this with a rendezvous with Dave and Jake for lunch. Jake slept for some of this then came out to entertain us with his trains. He was clearly very happy to watch the trains chug around the table and we all took turns gently nudging the cars in the right direction so they wouldn't fall onto the ground. He found all this delightful, and I think we did too.

Helana returned to Seattle after an afternoon nap, Dave & Jake headed back to Eugene, Erin continued her grading (six week grades due already?), and I fiddled with music stuff. News tomorrow will tell you why it might take me a little longer to purchase all the musical equipment I'm after. It's no tragedy, just a temporary delay.

March 10, 2001
After Dave took off for his parents this morning, Helana drove down from Seattle this afternoon. (Our cup runneth over!) I had grocery shopping to do, so Helana and I took a trip to Winco, wandered the aisles and chatted up a storm. Geez, it's good to see old friends again.

Dave and Jake came over late afternoon—Helana, Dave, and I were los tres amigos at UP for a couple of years in case nobody's catching on here—and they took off for dinner about the same time we headed out to a birthday party for Ginger.

Ogle birthday parties mean yummy eats. That's so true you could engrave it in stone, and this occasion was no exception. But this was hardly a "food-only" event. We had a wide-ranging discussion about drugs and drug use—Joe's doing a research project to test a drug that helps addicts.

It was during this that Matt bringing up one of the more intriguing arguments I've ever heard regarding drug use by women or girls: Because women carry all the eggs they're ever going to have, any drug use potentially effects future children. (While reproductive harm for men could also occur, sperm dies after a few days and is created anew. It would, at least theoretically, take ongoing drug use to effect men's reproductive health in a similar way.)

[Matt also brought up the idea, though I don't know if there's enough evidence yet to support this as a full-fledged argument, that the reason schools are seeing more Attention-Deficit Disorder (ADD) and Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) kids may be because of their parents' drug use in the '60s and '70s.]

We split into three teams to play Cranium, a game that mixes charades, clay, Pictionary, spelling bees, and trivia—and throws in a lot of twists. It's a dice-roller, so there's still a lot of luck involved, but I sure like the variety. I can't think of another game where I'd have to whistle Stayin' Alive by the Bee Gees, attempt a (rather awful) Jack Nicholson impersonation, and remember the scientific name for DNA. Good stuff, that Cranium game.

Afterward, Ginger opened her cards, we sang "Happy birthday," and ate chocolate cake. Happy Birthday to Ginger!

March 9, 2001
Dave came up and we took a road trip up to Wilsonville to checkout Fry's Electronics and then to Lake Oswego to see Power Max. Unfortunately, the latter Mac dealer doesn't have a retail outlet—they're web-only—so nothing to see in Lake Oswego despite our journey.

Fun time, though, and while we were at Fry's Dave and I got a chance to see the new Flower Power and Blue Dalmatian iMacs firsthand. True, they're not as "garish" as they might appear over the web, but neither are they anything I would find very appealing. Teenage girls throughout the world are undoubtedly squealing with delight, however, so maybe this is just target marketing at it's finest.

We also looked at newer 17" Studio Displays. Very nice. Perhaps the best 17" monitors I've seen. The front is completely flat, and the clarity is striking. There's even a theatre mode for playing DVDs. At the same time, we'll see completely flat-screen LCD prices drop in the coming year or two, and big CRT monitors like this one will be a dinosaur-style relatively soon. (I should know, I've got 3 CRT monitors downstairs including one hurkin' 19" baby.) Already the educational price on a 15" multisync flat panel is $750; look for it to drop to sub-$500 by end of year.

March 7, 2001
Watched Chicken Run, a claymation-based film about a bunch of chickens trying to escape from a bumbling chicken farmer couple. Cliché-ridden but relatively inoffensive. Couple of funny bits but nothing sidesplitting. Kind of ho-hum. See it or don't. Your life won't change either way.

There's been a lot of huffing and puffing about the economy lately as the 20- and 30-somethings dot-commers try to figure out if losing a job nowadays means that we're in a recession. (Hint: Well, it does for you.) Given that the tech sector has driven the enormous returns of the market in the last decade, I think it's fair to say that the party's over.

I never did figure out how a business model where the central theme was to lose as much money as possible as quickly as possible could be a viable proposition. All this talk of the Internet creating a "New Economy" was so much junk, that I can't believe anybody fell for it. (And continues to fall for it—this means you, Amazon.com shareholders!)

The Internet enables some new methods of communication. And some of these are faster and more efficient than older models. It radically changes some areas of commerce, particularly in information delivery (for example, magazine publishing and music distribution). For most things, though, it's an add-on feature not a core component.

The result is that very few Internet-only retailers will stave off bankruptcy. EBay will be one exception, and that's because they simply act as a middleman—no inventory or sales costs. Most are going the way of eToys, Pets.com, etc.

And while I'm on the subject of the economy, I might as well add that I'm not sure that Alan Greenspan and the Fed have done all that great a job. The January 3 "between meetings" interest rate cut was a surprise at the time, but now that it's clearly failed to adequately stimulate the economy, is there anyone who believe that the Fed won't cut rates again on March 20 (or before)?

So the net positive effect on the economy of the "surprise" cut has been almost zero because the Fed has telegraphed their punches. The result is that people who might buy a house or refinance a mortgage (like, say, me) are happily sitting on the sidelines because we know that if we'll just wait a bit, interest rates will go lower. As long as that belief exists, people with money will continue to wait and the economy will keep sputtering.

Latest update on March 29, 2001
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